Milan 1-0 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 11 Feb 2024

Milan
1-0 HT 1-0
Napoli
📅11/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Milan vs Napoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
33%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.17
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.62
6+ Goals
10%
14.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 29% vs market 25.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.58
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.45
X/1
10%
4.29
X/2
13%
7.6
X/X
10%
4.56
2/1
9%
24.6
2/2
13%
5.76
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
33%
Away Win
25%
+8.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.5pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milan v Napoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +2%
1.69/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.29
+13% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
360 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 81%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
18.0 Crosses 15.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4

Milan vs Napoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Napoli
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.86 xG 1.41
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 9
303 Passes 435
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Napoli Napoli 2-2 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA
18.04.2023 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 0-1 Milan Milan ŞMP
12.04.2023 Milan Milan 1-0 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli ŞMP
02.04.2023 Napoli Napoli 0-4 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA
18.09.2022 Milan Milan 1-2 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
06.03.2022 Napoli Napoli 0-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA

Milan 1-0 Napoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
1-0
AWAY Napoli
0.90 xG 0.67
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
309 Passes 505
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Milan vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan nicked a narrow win over Napoli 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Milan had 40% of the ball to Napoli's 60%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.90 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Milan and 0.83 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Milan vs Napoli?

Milan 1-0 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Milan 41%, draw 26%, Napoli 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✓ BTTS No
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