Fiorentina 5-1 Frosinone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.14
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
2.99
6+ Goals
10%
9.32
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.14 — our 26% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.93
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
15.7
X/1
18%
3.8
X/2
6%
10.8
X/X
12%
5.97
2/1
7%
21.0
2/2
9%
8.08
2/X
6%
16.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-4.6pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.9pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+2.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Frosinone EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -11%
1.82/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.78
-12% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
404 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
24.4 Crosses 15.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Frosinone
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
1.61 xG 0.57
62% Ball Possession 38%
23 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
469 Passes 236
83% Pass Accuracy 70%
28 Box Touches 15
29 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
28.09.2023 Frosinone Frosinone 1-1 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
07.04.2019 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-1 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTA
09.11.2018 Frosinone Frosinone 1-1 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
20.03.2016 Frosinone Frosinone 0-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
01.11.2015 Fiorentina Fiorentina 4-1 HT 4-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
5-1
AWAY Frosinone
2.32 xG 1.12
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
318 Passes 254
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
36 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Frosinone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina swept aside Frosinone 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fiorentina had 54% of the ball to Frosinone's 46%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.32 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Fiorentina and 0.80 for Frosinone.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Frosinone?

Fiorentina 5-1 Frosinone in the Italy - Serie A on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Frosinone?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 55%, draw 24%, Frosinone 21%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✓ Over 2.5
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