Al Nasr 3-1 Ajman — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UAE - League, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒16:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.21
Over 2.5
47%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.45
2-3 Goals
42%
1.89
4-5 Goals
22%
2.92
6+ Goals
10%
8.58
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.45 — our 26% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-8.3pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.5pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.9pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Nasr EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajman EU Bookmakers 30%
-6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.71/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.32
-7% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +0%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
377 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 78%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
21.2 Crosses 15.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Nasr
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ajman
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.81 xG 1.23
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
424 Passes 299
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.05.2024 Al Nasr Al Nasr 1-1 HT 1-1 Ajman Ajman BAE
02.04.2024 Ajman Ajman 1-2 HT 1-0 Al Nasr Al Nasr BAECK
16.12.2023 Ajman Ajman 0-3 HT 0-2 Al Nasr Al Nasr BAE
14.09.2023 Al Nasr Al Nasr 4-1 HT 3-1 Ajman Ajman BAELK
30.08.2023 Ajman Ajman 2-2 HT 1-2 Al Nasr Al Nasr BAELK
04.02.2023 Ajman Ajman 4-1 HT 4-1 Al Nasr Al Nasr BAE
POST-MATCH Al Nasr vs Ajman
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nasr saw off Ajman 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Nasr as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Nasr had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Al Nasr and 1.50 for Ajman.

What was the final score of Al Nasr vs Ajman?

Al Nasr 3-1 Ajman in the UAE - League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Nasr vs Ajman?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Nasr win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Al Nasr 41%, draw 29%, Ajman 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nasr), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Nasr) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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