Isloch Minsk 3-2 Smorgon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.75
Over 2.5
51%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.96
No
46%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.92
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.99
6+ Goals
8%
18.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-9.0pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+7.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
53%
-4.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
47%
+4.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+7.5pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Isloch Minsk EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Smorgon EU Bookmakers 22%
-20% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.33/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/2.04
-21% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / -30%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
558 · 89% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Isloch Minsk
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Smorgon
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
16.05.2024 Smorgon Smorgon 1-1 HT 0-1 Isloch Minsk Isloch Minsk BLR
19.08.2023 Isloch Minsk Isloch Minsk 1-0 HT 0-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
07.04.2023 Smorgon Smorgon 0-4 HT 0-3 Isloch Minsk Isloch Minsk BLR
25.07.2021 Smorgon Smorgon 1-2 HT 0-1 Isloch Minsk Isloch Minsk BLR
19.03.2021 Isloch Minsk Isloch Minsk 2-0 HT 1-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
20.09.2014 Isloch Minsk Isloch Minsk 3-1 HT 1-0 Smorgon Smorgon BRU1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Isloch Minsk
3-2
AWAY Smorgon
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 6
5 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Isloch Minsk vs Smorgon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Isloch Minsk squeezed past Smorgon 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Isloch Minsk as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Isloch Minsk had 59% of the ball to Smorgon's 41%, shots finished 12-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Isloch Minsk had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Isloch Minsk and 0.50 for Smorgon.

What was the final score of Isloch Minsk vs Smorgon?

Isloch Minsk 3-2 Smorgon in the Belarus - Premier League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Isloch Minsk vs Smorgon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Isloch Minsk win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Isloch Minsk 47%, draw 27%, Smorgon 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Isloch Minsk), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Isloch Minsk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BLR More Belarus - Premier League
5 Oct 2024
17:00 Torpedo Zhodino vs Gomel Analysis →
21:00 Slavia Mozyr vs BATE Borisov Analysis →