Caen 1-2 Lorient — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 5 Oct 2024

Caen
1-2 HT 1-1
Lorient
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.95
Over 2.5
42%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.68
No
55%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.5
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.41
6+ Goals
9%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 32% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.56
1/2
7%
24.85
1/X
7%
13.9
X/1
13%
6.43
X/2
14%
4.72
X/X
10%
4.96
2/1
10%
32.0
2/2
18%
2.98
2/X
9%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
31%
+3.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
39%
Away Win
43%
-4.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.8pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caen EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Lorient EU Bookmakers 48%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.21/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.14
+11% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +27%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
287 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 80%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
21.4 Crosses 14.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caen
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Lorient
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.07 xG 1.96
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
323 Passes 316
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.01.2020 Lorient Lorient 2-1 HT 1-1 Caen Caen FR2
05.08.2019 Caen Caen 1-2 HT 0-2 Lorient Lorient FR2
24.10.2017 Lorient Lorient 0-1 HT 0-1 Caen Caen FRLK
19.07.2017 Caen Caen 2-1 HT 1-1 Lorient Lorient HAZ
02.04.2017 Lorient Lorient 1-0 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR1
13.08.2016 Caen Caen 3-2 HT 2-2 Lorient Lorient FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caen
1-2
AWAY Lorient
0.43 xG 1.05
43% Ball Possession 57%
5 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 4
320 Passes 424
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
8 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Caen vs Lorient
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lorient nicked a narrow win over Caen 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Lorient made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Caen had 43% of the ball to Lorient's 57%, shots finished 5-15, expected goals 0.43 to 1.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Caen and 1.33 for Lorient.

What was the final score of Caen vs Lorient?

Caen 1-2 Lorient in the France - Ligue 2 on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caen vs Lorient?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lorient win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Caen 35%, draw 26%, Lorient 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lorient) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lorient) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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