Clermont 4-1 Guingamp — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 5 Oct 2024

Clermont
4-1 HT 2-0
Guingamp
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2024/2025

Clermont vs Guingamp Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
41%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.59
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.54
6+ Goals
9%
24.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.59 — our 35% vs market 32.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.1
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
5%
14.3
X/1
9%
6.44
X/2
16%
4.54
X/X
16%
4.02
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.12
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+1.9pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
41%
Away Win
42%
-1.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.4pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Clermont v Guingamp — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Clermont EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Guingamp EU Bookmakers 46%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +26%
0.79/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.23
-18% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +33%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 79%
16.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
21.5 Crosses 18.5
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7

Clermont vs Guingamp Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Clermont
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Guingamp
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.83 xG 0.66
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
496 Passes 330
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
02.03.2021 Guingamp Guingamp 0-5 HT 0-2 Clermont Clermont FR2
07.11.2020 Clermont Clermont 0-0 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
25.10.2019 Guingamp Guingamp 1-2 HT 0-2 Clermont Clermont FR2
06.04.2013 Guingamp Guingamp 0-0 HT 0-0 Clermont Clermont FR2
02.11.2012 Clermont Clermont 1-2 HT 1-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
11.05.2012 Guingamp Guingamp 3-1 HT 1-0 Clermont Clermont FR2

Clermont 4-1 Guingamp — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Clermont
4-1
AWAY Guingamp
1.99 xG 2.18
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 22
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 10
254 Passes 521
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
14 Box Touches 41
12 Crosses 31
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Clermont vs Guingamp
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Clermont ran out comfortable winners over Guingamp 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Guingamp at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Clermont had 35% of the ball to Guingamp's 65%, shots finished 9-22, expected goals 1.99 to 2.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Clermont and 1.00 for Guingamp.

What was the final score of Clermont vs Guingamp?

Clermont 4-1 Guingamp in the France - Ligue 2 on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Clermont vs Guingamp?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guingamp win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Clermont 31%, draw 28%, Guingamp 41%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Guingamp) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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