Ventforet Kofu 3-1 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.16
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 32% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+3.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
40%
Away Win
44%
-3.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.7pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ventforet Kofu EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -1%
1.16/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/0.80
+5% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +36%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.0 Crosses 22.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ventforet Kofu
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
558 Passes 173
1 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-0 HT 1-0 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu JAP2
24.06.2023 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
19.03.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-3 HT 2-3 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu JAP2
09.10.2022 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu 1-2 HT 0-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
20.02.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 4-1 HT 2-1 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu JAP2
03.11.2021 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu 1-2 HT 0-2 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ventforet Kofu
3-1
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
465 Passes 308
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ventforet Kofu vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ventforet Kofu saw off Fagiano Okayama 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 27% / 40%) promised a tight game; Ventforet Kofu found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ventforet Kofu had 57% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 43%, shots finished 16-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fagiano Okayama led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ventforet Kofu and 2.00 for Fagiano Okayama.

What was the final score of Ventforet Kofu vs Fagiano Okayama?

Ventforet Kofu 3-1 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J2 League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ventforet Kofu vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ventforet Kofu 32%, draw 27%, Fagiano Okayama 40%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP2 More Japan - J2 League
5 Oct 2024
08:00 JEF United vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma Analysis →
11:00 Fujieda MYFC vs Iwaki Analysis →