Glenavon FC 2-1 Portadown FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 5 Oct 2024

Glenavon FC
2-1 HT 0-1
Portadown FC
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
North Ireland - Premier League – 2024/2025

Glenavon FC vs Portadown FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.37
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
13.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.52 — our 28% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.08
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
32.5
1/X
10%
13.15
X/1
9%
4.85
X/2
13%
6.41
X/X
8%
4.68
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
16%
4.54
2/X
11%
13.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 32.5 — our 8% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
43%
-9.6pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.3pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
+0.4pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Glenavon FC v Portadown FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Glenavon FC EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Portadown FC EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.56/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/2.02
+4% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / -30%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

Glenavon FC vs Portadown FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Glenavon FC
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Portadown FC
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
16.01.2024 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Portadown FC Portadown FC KILK
29.04.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Portadown FC Portadown FC KİRL
18.02.2023 Portadown FC Portadown FC 3-1 HT 1-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
26.12.2022 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 2-1 HT 0-0 Portadown FC Portadown FC KİRL
30.09.2022 Portadown FC Portadown FC 1-1 HT 1-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
23.04.2022 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Portadown FC Portadown FC KİRL
POST-MATCH Glenavon FC vs Portadown FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Glenavon FC squeezed past Portadown FC 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (34% / 30% / 37%) promised a tight game; Glenavon FC found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Glenavon FC and 1.00 for Portadown FC.

What was the final score of Glenavon FC vs Portadown FC?

Glenavon FC 2-1 Portadown FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Glenavon FC vs Portadown FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Portadown FC win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Glenavon FC 34%, draw 30%, Portadown FC 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Portadown FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Portadown FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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