CA La Paz 2-5 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
35%
3.28
Away
25%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
17%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.0pp
34%
Draw
27%
+7.3pp
25%
Away Win
30%
-4.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.6pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 33%
+17% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -1%
2.02/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.48
+39% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
341 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA La Paz
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
24.01.2024 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
06.10.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 4-0 HT 1-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
15.01.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-0 HT 1-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
09.09.2022 CA La Paz CA La Paz 1-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
07.09.2022 CA La Paz CA La Paz 1-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
POST-MATCH CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tepatitlán de Morelos cruised past CA La Paz 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 34% / 25%) promised a tight game; Tepatitlán de Morelos found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for CA La Paz and 1.80 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

CA La Paz 2-5 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA La Paz win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split CA La Paz 40%, draw 34%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 25%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (CA La Paz), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CA La Paz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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