Verdal 1-3 Tiller — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - 3rd Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.57
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
33%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under
36%
2.38
Over Pick
64%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.46
No
40%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1
17%
2-3
40%
4-5
32%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
35%
+8.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
33%
Away Win
41%
-8.3pp
36%
Under 2.5
38%
-2.1pp
64%
Over 2.5
62%
+2.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
64%
-4.0pp
40%
BTTS No
36%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Verdal EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Tiller EU Bookmakers 45%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.63/1.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.58/2.09
-14% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
353 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Verdal
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Tiller
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
05.08.2023 Verdal Verdal 1-5 HT 0-2 Tiller Tiller NOR4
29.04.2023 Tiller Tiller 0-0 HT 0-0 Verdal Verdal NOR4
POST-MATCH Verdal vs Tiller
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tiller saw off Verdal 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Verdal at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Tiller led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Verdal and 2.50 for Tiller.

What was the final score of Verdal vs Tiller?

Verdal 1-3 Tiller in the Norway - 3rd Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Verdal vs Tiller?

Before kick-off our model rated a Verdal win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Verdal 43%, draw 24%, Tiller 33%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Verdal) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Verdal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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