Maritimo 1-0 Porto II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.6
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.34
6+ Goals
9%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.6 — our 27% vs market 22.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.4pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+5.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maritimo EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto II EU Bookmakers 25%
-38% / -38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +3%
0.88/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.46
-27% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
368 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
28.5 Crosses 17.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maritimo
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Porto II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.31 xG 0.70
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
230 Passes 366
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 4
17.02.2024 Maritimo Maritimo 1-0 HT 1-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
16.09.2023 Porto II Porto II 0-2 HT 0-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maritimo
1-0
AWAY Porto II
0.94 xG 1.74
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
187 Passes 291
66% Pass Accuracy 76%
12 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Maritimo vs Porto II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo edged past Porto II 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Maritimo as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Maritimo had 46% of the ball to Porto II's 54%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.94 to 1.74 — the balance of chances actually favoured Porto II.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Maritimo had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Maritimo and 0.00 for Porto II.

What was the final score of Maritimo vs Porto II?

Maritimo 1-0 Porto II in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maritimo vs Porto II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Maritimo 47%, draw 26%, Porto II 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Maritimo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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