Maritimo 1-0 Porto II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.28
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
13.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 30% vs market 24.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+3.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maritimo EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto II EU Bookmakers 32%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -8%
1.42/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.24
+70% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
301 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.6 Crosses 17.8
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maritimo
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Porto II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.58 xG 0.95
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 7
288 Passes 370
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 5
16.09.2023 Porto II Porto II 0-2 HT 0-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maritimo
1-0
AWAY Porto II
2.04 xG 0.45
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
171 Passes 362
69% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Crosses 19
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Maritimo vs Porto II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo edged past Porto II 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Maritimo as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Maritimo had 36% of the ball to Porto II's 64%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 2.04 to 0.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Maritimo's control.

What was the final score of Maritimo vs Porto II?

Maritimo 1-0 Porto II in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maritimo vs Porto II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Maritimo 43%, draw 25%, Porto II 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Maritimo)
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