Mafra 1-3 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
4.47
6+ Goals
8%
23.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.5pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.1pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.3pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mafra EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +5%
1.50/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.05
-6% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +45%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
320 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.2 Crosses 15.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mafra
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Tondela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
1.09 xG 1.24
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
363 Passes 243
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
24 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.09.2023 Tondela Tondela 2-1 HT 0-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
19.03.2023 Tondela Tondela 1-2 HT 1-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
09.10.2022 Mafra Mafra 1-1 HT 1-1 Tondela Tondela POR2
20.04.2022 Mafra Mafra 1-1 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POK
03.03.2022 Tondela Tondela 3-0 HT 1-0 Mafra Mafra POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mafra
1-3
AWAY Tondela
0.74 xG 1.39
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
354 Passes 185
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
21 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Mafra vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela beat Mafra 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Tondela made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mafra had 62% of the ball to Tondela's 38%, shots finished 11-6, expected goals 0.74 to 1.39.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Tondela led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mafra and 1.60 for Tondela.

What was the final score of Mafra vs Tondela?

Mafra 1-3 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mafra vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mafra win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mafra 39%, draw 28%, Tondela 34%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mafra) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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