Mafra vs Tondela Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mafra v Tondela — Team-Based Signals
Mafra vs Tondela Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
2-1
HT 0-0
Mafra
POR2
1-2
HT 1-1
Mafra
POR2
1-1
HT 1-1
Tondela
POR2
1-1
HT 1-0
Tondela
POK
3-0
HT 1-0
Mafra
POK
Mafra 1-3 Tondela — Actual Match Statistics
Tondela beat Mafra 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Tondela made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Mafra had 62% of the ball to Tondela's 38%, shots finished 11-6, expected goals 0.74 to 1.39.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Tondela led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mafra and 1.60 for Tondela.
What was the final score of Mafra vs Tondela?
Mafra 1-3 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mafra vs Tondela?
Before kick-off our model rated a Mafra win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mafra 39%, draw 28%, Tondela 34%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.