Uniao De Leiria 4-2 CF Os Belenenses — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.09
No
50%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.84
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
4.01
6+ Goals
11%
18.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
60%
-10.7pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.3pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.5pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Os Belenenses EU Bookmakers 20%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -10%
1.22/0.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.67
-71% / +70% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -26%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
356 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
31.9 Crosses 15.2
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
3W-0D-1L
AWAY CF Os Belenenses
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.64 xG 0.92
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
287 Passes 350
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.09.2023 CF Os Belenenses 0-5 HT 0-3 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
20.05.2023 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-0 HT 1-0 CF Os Belenenses POR3
29.01.2023 CF Os Belenenses 1-2 HT 0-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR3
09.10.2022 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 2-4 HT 1-1 CF Os Belenenses POR3
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs CF Os Belenenses
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao De Leiria beat CF Os Belenenses 4-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Uniao De Leiria as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Uniao De Leiria had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Uniao De Leiria and 1.25 for CF Os Belenenses.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs CF Os Belenenses?

Uniao De Leiria 4-2 CF Os Belenenses in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs CF Os Belenenses?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 49%, draw 29%, CF Os Belenenses 22%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✗ Under 2.5
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