Arouca 1-1 AVS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 5 Oct 2024

Arouca
1-1 HT 1-0
AVS
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.6
Over 2.5
45%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.52
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.71
6+ Goals
9%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.98
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.15
X/1
10%
4.37
X/2
8%
6.79
X/X
13%
3.95
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
19%
5.52
2/X
6%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.3pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.3pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.0pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY AVS EU Bookmakers 30%
+5% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -42% / -42%
1.38/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/2.38
+1% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +100% / -67%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
329 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
18.0 Crosses 16.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
1W-0D-0L
AWAY AVS
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.09.2023 AVS AVS 1-2 HT 0-1 Arouca Arouca PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
1-1
AWAY AVS
1.03 xG 2.10
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
463 Passes 234
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arouca vs AVS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca and AVS couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Arouca at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Arouca had 64% of the ball to AVS's 36%, shots finished 13-18, expected goals 1.03 to 2.10.

What was the final score of Arouca vs AVS?

Arouca 1-1 AVS in the Portugal - Premier League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs AVS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Arouca 42%, draw 26%, AVS 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Arouca), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arouca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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