Gil Vicente 3-0 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.81
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.15
6+ Goals
8%
20.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 34% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.61
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.35
X/1
18%
4.14
X/2
15%
7.71
X/X
15%
4.36
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
10%
6.22
2/X
7%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-7.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+6.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.2pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.46/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/0.88
+8% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +71%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 76%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
20.1 Crosses 16.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gil Vicente
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Estrela
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.94 xG 1.27
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
306 Passes 314
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
18.05.2024 Estrela Estrela 1-0 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
14.01.2024 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-1 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gil Vicente
3-0
AWAY Estrela
1.59 xG 0.70
43% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 8
284 Passes 363
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 18
0 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gil Vicente vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gil Vicente cruised past Estrela 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gil Vicente as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (60%) missed.

On the day, Gil Vicente had 43% of the ball to Estrela's 57%, shots finished 6-12, expected goals 1.59 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Estrela led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.00 for Estrela.

What was the final score of Gil Vicente vs Estrela?

Gil Vicente 3-0 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gil Vicente vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gil Vicente win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gil Vicente 42%, draw 27%, Estrela 31%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gil Vicente), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gil Vicente) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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