Göztepe 3-2 Sivasspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 5 Oct 2024

Göztepe
3-2 HT 2-0
Sivasspor
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Turkey - Super League – 2024/2025

Göztepe vs Sivasspor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.8
Over 2.5
55%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.09
2-3 Goals
35%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
28%
3.79
6+ Goals
12%
16.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.79 — our 28% vs market 21.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.23
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.7
X/1
14%
3.94
X/2
11%
9.52
X/X
12%
4.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
25.5
2/2
7%
7.71
2/X
11%
15.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 10% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-5.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.4pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Göztepe v Sivasspor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Göztepe EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sivasspor EU Bookmakers 23%
-21% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +12%
2.01/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.48
+1% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
347 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
24.6 Crosses 15.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2

Göztepe vs Sivasspor Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Göztepe
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sivasspor
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.38 xG 1.85
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
307 Passes 307
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.01.2022 Göztepe Göztepe 2-1 HT 1-0 Sivasspor Sivasspor TSL
29.08.2021 Sivasspor Sivasspor 2-2 HT 1-0 Göztepe Göztepe TSL
20.03.2021 Göztepe Göztepe 3-5 HT 0-4 Sivasspor Sivasspor TSL
30.11.2020 Sivasspor Sivasspor 0-1 HT 0-0 Göztepe Göztepe TSL
25.07.2020 Göztepe Göztepe 3-1 HT 1-0 Sivasspor Sivasspor TSL
29.12.2019 Sivasspor Sivasspor 1-0 HT 0-0 Göztepe Göztepe TSL

Göztepe 3-2 Sivasspor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Göztepe
3-2
AWAY Sivasspor
1.57 xG 1.12
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
310 Passes 200
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
29 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Göztepe vs Sivasspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Göztepe nicked a narrow win over Sivasspor 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Göztepe as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Göztepe had 57% of the ball to Sivasspor's 43%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.57 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Göztepe had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Göztepe and 1.67 for Sivasspor.

What was the final score of Göztepe vs Sivasspor?

Göztepe 3-2 Sivasspor in the Turkey - Super League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Göztepe vs Sivasspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Göztepe win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Göztepe 49%, draw 28%, Sivasspor 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Göztepe), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Göztepe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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