Başakşehir FK 1-1 Kayserispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 5 Oct 2024

Başakşehir FK
1-1 HT 0-1
Kayserispor
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Turkey - Super League – 2024/2025

Başakşehir FK vs Kayserispor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.07
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
20%
3.08
6+ Goals
12%
9.86
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.07 — our 26% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.21
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.95
X/1
15%
4.18
X/2
12%
9.3
X/X
12%
5.43
2/1
12%
21.85
2/2
9%
6.71
2/X
6%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-8.0pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.9pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Başakşehir FK v Kayserispor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
1.76/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.53
+14% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
384 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 80%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
18.7 Crosses 15.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Başakşehir FK vs Kayserispor Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Başakşehir FK
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Kayserispor
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.06 xG 0.98
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
436 Passes 297
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.02.2024 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 2-3 HT 0-2 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
02.10.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 0-0 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
02.02.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 1-0 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
21.08.2022 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 2-0 HT 1-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
19.01.2022 Kayserispor Kayserispor 1-0 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
28.08.2021 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 0-1 HT 0-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL

Başakşehir FK 1-1 Kayserispor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Başakşehir FK
1-1
AWAY Kayserispor
1.95 xG 1.30
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
400 Passes 205
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 22
27 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Başakşehir FK vs Kayserispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Başakşehir FK and Kayserispor couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Başakşehir FK at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Başakşehir FK had 62% of the ball to Kayserispor's 38%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.95 to 1.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kayserispor led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Başakşehir FK and 1.00 for Kayserispor.

What was the final score of Başakşehir FK vs Kayserispor?

Başakşehir FK 1-1 Kayserispor in the Turkey - Super League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Başakşehir FK vs Kayserispor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Başakşehir FK win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Başakşehir FK 46%, draw 27%, Kayserispor 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Başakşehir FK) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Başakşehir FK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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