Deportivo Alaves 3-1 Elche — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
30%
2.88
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
67%
1.45
Over
33%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.19
No
59%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1
40%
2.05
2-3
39%
1.8
4-5
14%
5.89
6+
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.14
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.25
X/1
16%
4.57
X/2
12%
7.1
X/X
16%
3.39
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
10%
6.17
2/X
6%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 67%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.5pp
30%
Draw
31%
-0.9pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.3pp
67%
Under 2.5
65%
+1.6pp
33%
Over 2.5
35%
-1.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.0pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves The Market 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Elche The Market 29%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.37/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.60
-26% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -26%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
24.3 Crosses 22.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Elche
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.53 xG 0.70
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
237 Passes 327
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.02.2022 Elche Elche 3-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
26.10.2021 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-0 HT 0-0 Elche Elche İS1
11.05.2021 Elche Elche 0-2 HT 0-1 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
18.10.2020 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-2 HT 0-1 Elche Elche İS1
23.04.2016 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-0 HT 0-0 Elche Elche İS2
21.11.2015 Elche Elche 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves
3-1
AWAY Elche
2.42 xG 0.42
47% Ball Possession 53%
25 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
14 Corners 4
328 Passes 399
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
47 Box Touches 10
31 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves vs Elche
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Alaves beat Elche 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Deportivo Alaves as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 47% of the ball to Elche's 53%, shots finished 25-6, expected goals 2.42 to 0.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Alaves had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 0.83 for Elche.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Elche?

Deportivo Alaves 3-1 Elche in the Spain - Primera Liga on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Elche?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Alaves win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 42%, draw 30%, Elche 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Alaves) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Alaves) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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