Sevilla 4-1 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
4.71
Draw
18%
4.19
Away Pick
63%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.51
Over
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
26%
5.2
2-3
35%
1.98
4-5
25%
2.62
6+
14%
6.32
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.2 — our 26% vs market 14.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
8.67
1/2
11%
19.0
1/X
6%
17.2
X/1
5%
11.85
X/2
23%
4.22
X/X
7%
7.11
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
28%
1.84
2/X
5%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Barcelona win — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
19%
Home Win
18%
+1.5pp
18%
Draw
21%
-2.8pp
63%
Away Win
61%
+1.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.7pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sevilla The Market 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona The Market 66%
-7% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.02/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/1.19
-26% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -12%
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
293 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 504 · 86%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.1
17.4 Crosses 15.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sevilla
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Barcelona
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.89 xG 2.47
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
282 Passes 495
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 30
17 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.02.2025 Sevilla Sevilla 1-4 HT 1-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
20.10.2024 Barcelona Barcelona 5-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
26.05.2024 Sevilla Sevilla 1-2 HT 1-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
29.09.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
05.02.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 3-0 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
03.09.2022 Sevilla Sevilla 0-3 HT 0-2 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sevilla
4-1
AWAY Barcelona
2.76 xG 2.25
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 6
205 Passes 363
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
34 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 14
7 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sevilla vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sevilla ran out comfortable winners over Barcelona 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Barcelona carried 63% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sevilla had 39% of the ball to Barcelona's 61%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 2.76 to 2.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sevilla and 3.00 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Sevilla vs Barcelona?

Sevilla 4-1 Barcelona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sevilla vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Sevilla 19%, draw 18%, Barcelona 63%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Barcelona) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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