Celta Vigo 1-1 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.75
Draw
22%
3.54
Away Pick
54%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
1.9
Over
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
32%
3.24
2-3
36%
1.77
4-5
21%
3.45
6+
11%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.24 — our 32% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.95
1/2
8%
23.55
1/X
5%
15.25
X/1
7%
8.77
X/2
22%
4.35
X/X
10%
4.95
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
24%
2.36
2/X
7%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Atletico Madrid win — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
24%
Home Win
23%
+0.6pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.4pp
54%
Away Win
52%
+1.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo The Market 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid The Market 56%
-7% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -39%
1.14/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/0.92
-10% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
361 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 77%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
17.1 Crosses 16.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.12 xG 1.05
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
466 Passes 450
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.02.2025 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-1 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
26.09.2024 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
12.05.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
21.10.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
12.02.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
10.09.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4-1 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
1-1
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.92 xG 0.38
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
659 Passes 436
91% Pass Accuracy 87%
29 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo and Atletico Madrid shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Madrid at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 59% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 41%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 1.92 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.83 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid?

Celta Vigo 1-1 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 24%, draw 22%, Atletico Madrid 54%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Madrid), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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