Celta Vigo 0-1 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 26 Sep 2024

Celta Vigo
0-1 HT 0-0
Atletico Madrid
📅26/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.5
Draw
35%
3.45
Away
34%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.6
6+ Goals
9%
14.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.6 — our 26% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.99
1/2
9%
24.45
1/X
7%
14.6
X/1
9%
7.85
X/2
9%
4.21
X/X
18%
4.81
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.52
2/X
9%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+6.2pp
35%
Draw
26%
+9.6pp
34%
Away Win
49%
-15.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.9pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Celta Vigo v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 54%
-8% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.17/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/0.95
-10% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +12%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
328 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 78%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
19.4 Crosses 14.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.11 xG 1.23
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
428 Passes 451
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 27
21 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.05.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
21.10.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
12.02.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
10.09.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4-1 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
26.02.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
15.08.2021 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1

Celta Vigo 0-1 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
0-1
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.53 xG 0.62
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
588 Passes 374
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 12
12 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid squeezed past Celta Vigo 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (31% / 35% / 34%) promised a tight game; Atletico Madrid found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 58% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 42%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 1.53 to 0.62 — on chances, Celta Vigo could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Celta Vigo and 2.17 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid?

Celta Vigo 0-1 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 26/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 31%, draw 35%, Atletico Madrid 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Draw), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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