Real Sociedad 0-1 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.8
Over
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
1.76
No
44%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.04
2-3
40%
1.76
4-5
24%
3.65
6+
10%
15.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.97
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
17%
4.9
X/2
13%
7.05
X/X
11%
4.45
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
7%
5.21
2/X
8%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
46%
Home Win
45%
+1.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.6pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Sociedad The Market 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano The Market 32%
-5% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
1.28/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.12
-18% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +27%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
289 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
20.8 Crosses 18.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Sociedad
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.94 xG 0.75
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
308 Passes 268
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2025 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-2 HT 0-1 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
16.01.2025 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 3-1 HT 2-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İSPK
18.08.2024 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1-2 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
27.01.2024 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
29.10.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-2 HT 1-1 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
22.04.2023 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 2-1 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Sociedad
0-1
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
0.82 xG 0.80
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
338 Passes 328
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 10
17 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano edged past Real Sociedad 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Real Sociedad at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Real Sociedad had 51% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 49%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 0.82 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Sociedad had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.33 for Rayo Vallecano.

What was the final score of Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?

Real Sociedad 0-1 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Sociedad win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Real Sociedad 46%, draw 28%, Rayo Vallecano 27%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Real Sociedad) ✗ BTTS Yes
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