Renofa Yamaguchi 1-2 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
41%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.47
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
4.32
6+ Goals
8%
22.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.6pp
25%
Draw
28%
-4.0pp
41%
Away Win
38%
+3.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.4pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Renofa Yamaguchi EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 42%
-2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.14/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.96
-4% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -46%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.8 Crosses 25.2
1.1 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Renofa Yamaguchi
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
194 Passes 385
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.04.2025 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-2 HT 1-0 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
21.08.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-2 HT 0-2 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Renofa Yamaguchi
1-2
AWAY Sagan Tosu
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
382 Passes 394
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Renofa Yamaguchi vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu squeezed past Renofa Yamaguchi 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sagan Tosu as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Renofa Yamaguchi had 50% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 50%, shots finished 13-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Renofa Yamaguchi had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Renofa Yamaguchi and 1.00 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Renofa Yamaguchi vs Sagan Tosu?

Renofa Yamaguchi 1-2 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J2 League on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Renofa Yamaguchi vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sagan Tosu win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Renofa Yamaguchi 34%, draw 25%, Sagan Tosu 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sagan Tosu) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sagan Tosu) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP2 More Japan - J2 League
5 Oct 2025
08:00 Blaublitz Akita vs Oita Trinita Analysis →
08:00 Tokushima Vortis vs Imabari Analysis →
09:00 Roasso Kumamoto vs Iwaki Analysis →
10:00 Ehime FC vs Mito HollyHock Analysis →