Sagan Tosu 2-2 Renofa Yamaguchi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.54
Over 2.5
37%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.24
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
5.01
6+ Goals
8%
31.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.6pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.4pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+3.2pp
63%
Under 2.5
61%
+2.2pp
37%
Over 2.5
39%
-2.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.4pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi EU Bookmakers 36%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -2%
0.76/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.18
-38% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
329 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.1 Crosses 18.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
21.08.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-2 HT 0-2 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
2-2
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
385 Passes 194
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Renofa Yamaguchi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu and Renofa Yamaguchi couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 63% of the ball to Renofa Yamaguchi's 37%, shots finished 12-8.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Sagan Tosu 2-2 Renofa Yamaguchi in the Japan - J2 League on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sagan Tosu win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 36%, draw 28%, Renofa Yamaguchi 36%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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