Plymouth Argyle 1-0 Portsmouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 5 Nov 2024

📅05/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.85
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.29
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.7
X/1
13%
5.3
X/2
12%
6.09
X/X
7%
4.94
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
25.5
2/2
16%
3.99
2/X
8%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+3.1pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.1pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.4pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -13%
1.96/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.55
+46% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
304 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 72%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.9 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Plymouth Argyle
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Portsmouth
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.74 xG 1.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
269 Passes 309
71% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2023 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 3-1 HT 1-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
17.09.2022 Portsmouth Portsmouth 2-2 HT 1-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İN1
15.03.2022 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 1-0 HT 0-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
21.09.2021 Portsmouth Portsmouth 2-2 HT 1-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İN1
06.02.2021 Portsmouth Portsmouth 2-2 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İN1
16.11.2020 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 2-2 HT 1-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Plymouth Argyle
1-0
AWAY Portsmouth
0.86 xG 0.80
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
250 Passes 184
74% Pass Accuracy 64%
14 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Plymouth Argyle vs Portsmouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Plymouth Argyle nicked a narrow win over Portsmouth 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Plymouth Argyle as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Plymouth Argyle had 54% of the ball to Portsmouth's 46%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.86 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Plymouth Argyle had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Plymouth Argyle and 1.50 for Portsmouth.

What was the final score of Plymouth Argyle vs Portsmouth?

Plymouth Argyle 1-0 Portsmouth in the England - Championship on 05/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Plymouth Argyle vs Portsmouth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Plymouth Argyle win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Plymouth Argyle 43%, draw 23%, Portsmouth 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Plymouth Argyle) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Plymouth Argyle) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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