Swansea City 1-0 Watford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 5 Nov 2024

📅05/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.7
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.28
6+ Goals
11%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 26% vs market 21.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.6
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.1
X/1
12%
4.51
X/2
11%
7.68
X/X
10%
4.93
2/1
12%
23.6
2/2
9%
5.5
2/X
9%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
48%
-0.1pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.7pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swansea City EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Watford EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -12%
1.59/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.64
+8% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -20%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
403 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
19.8 Crosses 15.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swansea City
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Watford
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.12 xG 1.43
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
411 Passes 290
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.03.2024 Watford Watford 1-1 HT 0-1 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
24.10.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 0-1 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNCL
30.12.2022 Swansea City Swansea City 4-0 HT 1-0 Watford Watford İNCL
05.10.2022 Watford Watford 1-2 HT 1-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
08.05.2021 Watford Watford 2-0 HT 0-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
02.01.2021 Swansea City Swansea City 2-1 HT 1-1 Watford Watford İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swansea City
1-0
AWAY Watford
2.00 xG 0.37
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 8
378 Passes 253
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Swansea City vs Watford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swansea City nicked a narrow win over Watford 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Swansea City as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Swansea City had 58% of the ball to Watford's 42%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 2.00 to 0.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Swansea City's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swansea City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Swansea City and 1.00 for Watford.

What was the final score of Swansea City vs Watford?

Swansea City 1-0 Watford in the England - Championship on 05/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swansea City vs Watford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swansea City win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Swansea City 48%, draw 24%, Watford 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Swansea City), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Swansea City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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