Dinamo Moscow 1-2 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 5 Nov 2024

📅05/11/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
39%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.44
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
22%
2.92
6+ Goals
12%
8.62
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.44 — our 26% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.98
1/2
6%
24.45
1/X
6%
12.3
X/1
12%
6.36
X/2
18%
5.44
X/X
13%
5.17
2/1
9%
28.0
2/2
15%
3.18
2/X
7%
12.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+0.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
40%
Away Win
40%
+0.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.9pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 43%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
3.36/2.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.16
+150% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
270 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Moscow
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.92 xG 1.22
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
308 Passes 336
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
27.07.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 3-1 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
03.03.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
21.10.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
28.05.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-4 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
22.10.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-3 HT 1-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
14.05.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-3 HT 1-3 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Moscow
1-2
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow nicked a narrow win over Dinamo Moscow 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 40% — and on the day Lokomotiv Moscow made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Dinamo Moscow had 55% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 45%, shots finished 16-19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Moscow had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Dinamo Moscow and 1.67 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Dinamo Moscow 1-2 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Cup on 05/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Moscow 35%, draw 26%, Lokomotiv Moscow 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow)
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