Dinamo Moscow 3-1 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 27 Jul 2024

📅27/07/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
2.84
6+ Goals
12%
7.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.8
1/2
10%
29.5
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
11%
4.95
X/2
9%
6.92
X/X
13%
5.61
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2
9%
4.43
2/X
8%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-2.0pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.7pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.2pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 34%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +16%
1.54/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.27
-14% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +65% / +5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 80%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
19.5 Crosses 14.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Moscow
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.85 xG 0.97
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
302 Passes 343
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.03.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
21.10.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
28.05.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-4 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
22.10.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-3 HT 1-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
14.05.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-3 HT 1-3 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
27.08.2021 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-1 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Moscow
3-1
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
2.24 xG 1.76
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 7
322 Passes 237
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 42
13 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Moscow saw off Lokomotiv Moscow 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dinamo Moscow as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Dinamo Moscow had 54% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 46%, shots finished 16-19, expected goals 2.24 to 1.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Moscow had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Dinamo Moscow and 1.67 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Dinamo Moscow 3-1 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Moscow 43%, draw 28%, Lokomotiv Moscow 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Moscow), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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