FK Orenburg 1-3 Krasnodar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 5 Nov 2025

📅05/11/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.71
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
58%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
19%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
30%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
18%
+3.7pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.1pp
58%
Away Win
61%
-3.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.7pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 66%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.13/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.55/1.12
+39% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -40%
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
242 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Krasnodar
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.31 xG 1.62
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
273 Passes 338
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.08.2025 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
17.05.2025 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-2 HT 1-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
03.11.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 4-0 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
03.12.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
12.08.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-2 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
13.11.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 5-1 HT 3-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
1-3
AWAY Krasnodar
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 12
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Krasnodar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar saw off FK Orenburg 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Krasnodar as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 40% of the ball to Krasnodar's 60%, shots finished 12-19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krasnodar led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FK Orenburg and 2.00 for Krasnodar.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Krasnodar?

FK Orenburg 1-3 Krasnodar in the Russia - Cup on 05/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Krasnodar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 22%, draw 21%, Krasnodar 58%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Krasnodar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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