Cruzeiro 2-2 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 Dec 2025

📅05/12/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.77
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.07
6+ Goals
9%
19.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 32% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.3
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.7
X/1
19%
4.19
X/2
7%
9.55
X/X
16%
4.52
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
10%
8.16
2/X
9%
16.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.0pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.6pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+1.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 23%
-6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.54/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.36
-6% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +21%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
398 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 79%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
22.7 Crosses 15.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Botafogo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.34 xG 1.04
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
319 Passes 321
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.08.2025 Botafogo Botafogo 0-2 HT 0-2 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
28.07.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 0-3 HT 0-2 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
14.04.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 3-2 HT 1-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
04.12.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
07.08.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
13.10.2021 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
2-2
AWAY Botafogo
1.73 xG 1.73
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 7
286 Passes 366
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro and Botafogo shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Cruzeiro at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 43% of the ball to Botafogo's 57%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 1.73 to 1.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.33 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?

Cruzeiro 2-2 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 48%, draw 31%, Botafogo 22%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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