Penafiel vs Uniao De Leiria Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Penafiel v Uniao De Leiria — Team-Based Signals
Penafiel vs Uniao De Leiria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Uniao De Leiria
POR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
PORLC
1-1
HT 1-0
Uniao De Leiria
POR
Penafiel 1-0 Uniao De Leiria — Actual Match Statistics
Penafiel squeezed past Uniao De Leiria 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Uniao De Leiria at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Penafiel had 39% of the ball to Uniao De Leiria's 61%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 0.86 to 1.89 — the balance of chances actually favoured Uniao De Leiria.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penafiel had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Penafiel and 0.50 for Uniao De Leiria.
What was the final score of Penafiel vs Uniao De Leiria?
Penafiel 1-0 Uniao De Leiria in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 05/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Uniao De Leiria?
Before kick-off our model rated an Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 27%, draw 25%, Uniao De Leiria 49%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Uniao De Leiria), BTTS Yes went the other way.