Uniao De Leiria 1-0 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
30%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.89
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
23%
3.62
6+ Goals
9%
15.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
54%
-11.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.7pp
30%
Away Win
21%
+8.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.2pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 24%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +39%
1.39/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.41
-6% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
339 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.8 Crosses 16.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Penafiel
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.05 xG 0.97
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 2
378 Passes 154
86% Pass Accuracy 66%
38 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 1-0 HT 1-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
25.04.2024 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 0-2 HT 0-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
16.12.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 1-0 HT 0-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
31.10.2007 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel PORLC
02.04.2006 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 1-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
27.11.2005 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
1-0
AWAY Penafiel
1.25 xG 0.79
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
389 Passes 202
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao De Leiria edged past Penafiel 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Uniao De Leiria as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 58% of the ball to Penafiel's 42%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.25 to 0.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penafiel led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Uniao De Leiria and 1.00 for Penafiel.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Penafiel?

Uniao De Leiria 1-0 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 42%, draw 28%, Penafiel 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uniao De Leiria), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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