Alfreton Town 2-0 Chorley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 6 Jan 2024

Alfreton Town
2-0 HT 1-0
Chorley
📅06/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Conference – 2023/2024

Alfreton Town vs Chorley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
39%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.95
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.67
6+ Goals
9%
15.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 29% vs market 27.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-2.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
39%
Away Win
39%
+0.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.7pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Alfreton Town v Chorley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Chorley EU Bookmakers 43%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +14%
1.27/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.21
-6% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
304 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 71%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Alfreton Town vs Chorley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alfreton Town
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Chorley
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
14.01.2023 Chorley Chorley 0-0 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
29.08.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
15.04.2022 Chorley Chorley 1-2 HT 1-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
30.08.2021 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
12.12.2020 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
05.09.2015 Chorley Chorley 1-2 HT 1-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON

Alfreton Town 2-0 Chorley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfreton Town
2-0
AWAY Chorley
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 2
5 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alfreton Town vs Chorley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfreton Town saw off Chorley 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 39%) promised a tight game; Alfreton Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Alfreton Town had 60% of the ball to Chorley's 40%, shots finished 14-2.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Alfreton Town and 1.00 for Chorley.

What was the final score of Alfreton Town vs Chorley?

Alfreton Town 2-0 Chorley in the England - Conference on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfreton Town vs Chorley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chorley win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Alfreton Town 33%, draw 28%, Chorley 39%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Chorley) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chorley) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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