Welling United 1-3 Aveley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.9
2-3 Goals
37%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
3.73
6+ Goals
10%
16.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 34% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+2.9pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.6pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-3.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.6pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Welling United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Aveley EU Bookmakers 40%
-12% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.05/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.01
-23% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +32%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
269 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Welling United
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Aveley
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 5
04.12.2023 Aveley Aveley 2-2 HT 2-1 Welling United Welling United İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Welling United
1-3
AWAY Aveley
70% Ball Possession 30%
17 Total Shots 11
11 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Welling United vs Aveley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aveley beat Welling United 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 33% — and on the day Aveley made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Welling United had 70% of the ball to Aveley's 30%, shots finished 17-11.

What was the final score of Welling United vs Aveley?

Welling United 1-3 Aveley in the England - Conference on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Welling United vs Aveley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Welling United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Welling United 39%, draw 29%, Aveley 33%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Welling United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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