Exeter City 2-1 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
25%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
4.22
6+ Goals
8%
21.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 34% vs market 30.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.91
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.75
X/1
17%
4.4
X/2
10%
6.82
X/X
16%
4.13
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
8%
5.38
2/X
7%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.7pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.7pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-1.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.5pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 30%
+2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -23%
1.15/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.55
-22% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / -18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
270 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 69%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
22.4 Crosses 20.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.34 xG 1.05
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
278 Passes 172
68% Pass Accuracy 55%
24 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 1
19.08.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-2 HT 0-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
09.04.2022 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-1 HT 0-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
20.11.2021 Exeter City Exeter City 2-1 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
30.01.2021 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-0 HT 1-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
31.10.2020 Exeter City Exeter City 1-0 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
07.09.2019 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-3 HT 0-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
2-1
AWAY Carlisle United
1.75 xG 1.33
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
357 Passes 183
71% Pass Accuracy 58%
23 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Exeter City squeezed past Carlisle United 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Exeter City as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Exeter City had 61% of the ball to Carlisle United's 39%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.75 to 1.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Exeter City had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Exeter City and 0.50 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Carlisle United?

Exeter City 2-1 Carlisle United in the England - 1st Division on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Exeter City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 44%, draw 31%, Carlisle United 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Exeter City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Exeter City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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