Fleetwood Town 1-3 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 6 Jan 2024

Fleetwood Town
1-3 HT 0-2
Derby County
📅06/01/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Fleetwood Town vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.13
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
47%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.61
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.24
6+ Goals
11%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.61 — our 29% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
7.41
1/2
6%
22.6
1/X
6%
15.6
X/1
7%
9.68
X/2
13%
3.91
X/X
14%
5.35
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
28%
2.11
2/X
8%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
21%
+4.3pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.5pp
47%
Away Win
55%
-8.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.6pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fleetwood Town v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fleetwood Town EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 60%
-4% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +11%
1.04/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/0.92
+20% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +31%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
236 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 73%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
16.3 Crosses 21.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8

Fleetwood Town vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fleetwood Town
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Derby County
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.76 xG 1.68
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
256 Passes 322
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 32
26 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.12.2023 Derby County Derby County 3-0 HT 1-0 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İNTK
19.08.2023 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 1-0 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
18.03.2023 Derby County Derby County 0-2 HT 0-2 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
20.08.2022 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İN1

Fleetwood Town 1-3 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fleetwood Town
1-3
AWAY Derby County
0.77 xG 1.36
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 11
170 Passes 296
63% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fleetwood Town vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County saw off Fleetwood Town 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Derby County as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fleetwood Town had 41% of the ball to Derby County's 59%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.77 to 1.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.00 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Fleetwood Town vs Derby County?

Fleetwood Town 1-3 Derby County in the England - 1st Division on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fleetwood Town vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated an Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Fleetwood Town 25%, draw 28%, Derby County 47%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derby County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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