Port Vale 3-3 Charlton Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.32
6+ Goals
11%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 28% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.12
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
9%
12.9
X/1
13%
4.96
X/2
15%
6.25
X/X
8%
4.77
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
11%
4.31
2/X
8%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.8pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.3pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+0.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Port Vale EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlton Athletic EU Bookmakers 34%
+8% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.27/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.24
-8% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
345 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 70%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
23.6 Crosses 16.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Port Vale
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Charlton Athletic
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
1.43 xG 0.98
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
246 Passes 333
70% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
19.08.2023 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 2-3 HT 1-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
29.04.2023 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 3-2 HT 1-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
19.11.2022 Port Vale Port Vale 1-0 HT 0-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İN1
19.11.2016 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 2-0 HT 2-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
18.10.2016 Port Vale Port Vale 1-1 HT 0-1 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Port Vale
3-3
AWAY Charlton Athletic
2.54 xG 1.22
45% Ball Possession 55%
29 Total Shots 7
12 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 4
272 Passes 378
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
39 Box Touches 21
43 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Port Vale vs Charlton Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Port Vale and Charlton Athletic couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Port Vale at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Port Vale had 45% of the ball to Charlton Athletic's 55%, shots finished 29-7, expected goals 2.54 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Port Vale and 1.60 for Charlton Athletic.

What was the final score of Port Vale vs Charlton Athletic?

Port Vale 3-3 Charlton Athletic in the England - 1st Division on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Port Vale vs Charlton Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Port Vale 43%, draw 25%, Charlton Athletic 32%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Port Vale) ✗ Under 2.5
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