Exeter City 2-1 Peterborough United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 6 Feb 2024

Exeter City
2-1 HT 0-1
Peterborough United
📅06/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Exeter City vs Peterborough United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
45%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.66
No
55%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.64
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.25
6+ Goals
9%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 31% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.1
1/2
7%
23.75
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
12%
7.08
X/2
17%
4.47
X/X
12%
4.88
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
21%
2.69
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
28%
+1.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
45%
Away Win
46%
-1.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.4pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Exeter City v Peterborough United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 50%
-8% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.09/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/0.94
-29% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +4%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
244 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 75%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
20.5 Crosses 19.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.6

Exeter City vs Peterborough United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Peterborough United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.85 xG 1.11
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 8
234 Passes 354
70% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.04.2023 Peterborough United Peterborough United 3-1 HT 2-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
12.11.2022 Exeter City Exeter City 3-2 HT 1-1 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
04.12.2018 Exeter City Exeter City 0-2 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İNTK
09.11.2013 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-0 HT 0-0 Exeter City Exeter City FAK
05.03.2011 Peterborough United Peterborough United 3-0 HT 1-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
18.09.2010 Exeter City Exeter City 2-2 HT 0-1 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1

Exeter City 2-1 Peterborough United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
2-1
AWAY Peterborough United
0.63 xG 1.95
48% Ball Possession 52%
6 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
322 Passes 362
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
8 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Peterborough United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Exeter City squeezed past Peterborough United 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Peterborough United at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Exeter City had 48% of the ball to Peterborough United's 52%, shots finished 6-12, expected goals 0.63 to 1.95 — on chances, Peterborough United could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Peterborough United led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Exeter City and 2.33 for Peterborough United.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Peterborough United?

Exeter City 2-1 Peterborough United in the England - 1st Division on 06/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Peterborough United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Peterborough United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 30%, draw 25%, Peterborough United 45%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Peterborough United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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