Port Vale 0-1 Leyton Orient — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 6 Feb 2024

📅06/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.94
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
36%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.71
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
4.21
6+ Goals
9%
20.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.7
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1 EV+ ✗
18%
6.08
X/2
11%
4.53
X/X
13%
4.24
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
19%
3.13
2/X
8%
14.05
Value flag · X/1 at 6.08 — our 18% vs market 12.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
30%
+6.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
36%
Away Win
42%
-6.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Port Vale EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Leyton Orient EU Bookmakers 46%
+1% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
0.97/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.45/1.29
-23% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / +143%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
253 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 72%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
21.9 Crosses 11.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Port Vale
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Leyton Orient
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.36 xG 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
217 Passes 232
62% Pass Accuracy 63%
24 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
22.01.2022 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 0-0 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
02.10.2021 Port Vale Port Vale 3-2 HT 1-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
20.02.2021 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 1-1 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
28.11.2020 Port Vale Port Vale 2-3 HT 1-2 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
18.01.2020 Port Vale Port Vale 1-0 HT 0-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
28.09.2019 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3-3 HT 1-2 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Port Vale
0-1
AWAY Leyton Orient
0.32 xG 1.69
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 2
262 Passes 377
67% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Port Vale vs Leyton Orient
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leyton Orient edged past Port Vale 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Leyton Orient made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Port Vale had 45% of the ball to Leyton Orient's 55%, shots finished 7-17, expected goals 0.32 to 1.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Leyton Orient's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Port Vale had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Port Vale and 1.50 for Leyton Orient.

What was the final score of Port Vale vs Leyton Orient?

Port Vale 0-1 Leyton Orient in the England - 1st Division on 06/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Port Vale vs Leyton Orient?

Before kick-off our model rated a Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Port Vale 37%, draw 27%, Leyton Orient 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Port Vale) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Port Vale) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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