Stevenage 0-1 Reading — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 6 Feb 2024

📅06/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.88
No
46%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.01
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.8
6+ Goals
10%
16.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.35
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.4
X/1
13%
3.97
X/2
9%
8.52
X/X
14%
4.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
25.0
2/2
12%
6.81
2/X
6%
15.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+6.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.6pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stevenage EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Reading EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.56/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.23
-28% / +65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -25%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
252 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 69%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
26.7 Crosses 18.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stevenage
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Reading
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.81 xG 1.55
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
188 Passes 325
61% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
19.08.2023 Reading Reading 2-0 HT 1-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN1
09.08.2022 Reading Reading 1-2 HT 0-1 Stevenage Stevenage İNLK
16.01.2018 Reading Reading 3-0 HT 2-0 Stevenage Stevenage FAK
06.01.2018 Stevenage Stevenage 0-0 HT 0-0 Reading Reading FAK
29.07.2014 Stevenage Stevenage 0-0 HT 0-0 Reading Reading HAZ
07.01.2012 Reading Reading 0-1 HT 0-1 Stevenage Stevenage FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stevenage
0-1
AWAY Reading
1.24 xG 0.53
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 3
230 Passes 153
66% Pass Accuracy 53%
37 Box Touches 12
38 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Stevenage vs Reading
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Reading nicked a narrow win over Stevenage 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Stevenage at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Stevenage had 56% of the ball to Reading's 44%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 1.24 to 0.53 — the balance of chances actually favoured Stevenage.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Stevenage and 1.00 for Reading.

What was the final score of Stevenage vs Reading?

Stevenage 0-1 Reading in the England - 1st Division on 06/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stevenage vs Reading?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stevenage win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Stevenage 45%, draw 27%, Reading 28%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Stevenage) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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