Plymouth Argyle 1-4 Leeds United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 6 Feb 2024

Plymouth Argyle
1-4 HT 0-0
Leeds United
📅06/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Plymouth Argyle vs Leeds United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
4.13
Draw
19%
3.94
Away
48%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.29
Over 2.5
61%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
29%
2.79
6+ Goals
8%
7.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
7.12
1/2
7%
20.15
1/X
4%
15.2
X/1
11%
10.15
X/2
15%
4.01
X/X
4%
6.15
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
34.0
2/2
26%
2.0
2/X
10%
14.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 9% vs market 1.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
21%
+12.2pp
19%
Draw
22%
-2.6pp
48%
Away Win
57%
-9.6pp
39%
Under 2.5
40%
-1.2pp
61%
Over 2.5
60%
+1.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.2pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Plymouth Argyle v Leeds United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Leeds United EU Bookmakers 62%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -46% / -46%
1.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.89
-24% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -43%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
212 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.8
– Crosses 23.1
– Yellow Cards 3.6

Plymouth Argyle vs Leeds United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Plymouth Argyle
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Leeds United
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.30 xG 1.63
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
281 Passes 546
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 42
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.01.2024 Leeds United Leeds United 1-1 HT 1-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle FAK
11.11.2023 Leeds United Leeds United 2-1 HT 2-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
07.04.2007 Leeds United Leeds United 2-1 HT 1-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
25.11.2006 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 1-2 HT 1-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
08.04.2006 Leeds United Leeds United 0-0 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
02.01.2006 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-3 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL

Plymouth Argyle 1-4 Leeds United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Plymouth Argyle
1-4
AWAY Leeds United
1.36 xG 1.55
27% Ball Possession 73%
12 Total Shots 26
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 16
205 Passes 738
67% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 48
11 Crosses 35
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Plymouth Argyle vs Leeds United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leeds United swept aside Plymouth Argyle 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Leeds United as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Plymouth Argyle had 27% of the ball to Leeds United's 73%, shots finished 12-26, expected goals 1.36 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leeds United led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Plymouth Argyle and 1.67 for Leeds United.

What was the final score of Plymouth Argyle vs Leeds United?

Plymouth Argyle 1-4 Leeds United in the England - FA Cup on 06/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Plymouth Argyle vs Leeds United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Plymouth Argyle 33%, draw 19%, Leeds United 48%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leeds United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Leeds United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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