Leeds United 1-1 Plymouth Argyle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 27 Jan 2024

Leeds United
1-1 HT 1-0
Plymouth Argyle
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Leeds United vs Plymouth Argyle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.29
Draw
19%
5.15
Away
19%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.96
Over 2.5
61%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.86
2-3 Goals
38%
2.17
4-5 Goals
28%
2.46
6+ Goals
14%
4.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.42
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
23.45
X/1
25%
3.61
X/2
8%
21.75
X/X
6%
9.68
2/1
6%
19.95
2/2
6%
14.75
2/X
6%
22.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
73%
-11.5pp
19%
Draw
16%
+2.9pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+8.6pp
39%
Under 2.5
30%
+9.1pp
61%
Over 2.5
70%
-9.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leeds United v Plymouth Argyle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leeds United EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 14%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
3.06/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/3.46
+101% / -51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +19%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
446 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 78%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
22.0 Crosses 18.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Leeds United vs Plymouth Argyle Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leeds United
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.71 xG 1.43
60% Ball Possession 40%
9 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
559 Passes 342
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
39 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Leeds United Leeds United 2-1 HT 2-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
07.04.2007 Leeds United Leeds United 2-1 HT 1-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
25.11.2006 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 1-2 HT 1-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
08.04.2006 Leeds United Leeds United 0-0 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
02.01.2006 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-3 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
28.12.2004 Leeds United Leeds United 2-1 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL

Leeds United 1-1 Plymouth Argyle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leeds United
1-1
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
1.55 xG 1.18
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
533 Passes 220
85% Pass Accuracy 71%
46 Box Touches 9
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Leeds United vs Plymouth Argyle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leeds United and Plymouth Argyle shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Leeds United at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leeds United had 66% of the ball to Plymouth Argyle's 34%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.55 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leeds United had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Leeds United and 0.67 for Plymouth Argyle.

What was the final score of Leeds United vs Plymouth Argyle?

Leeds United 1-1 Plymouth Argyle in the England - FA Cup on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leeds United vs Plymouth Argyle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Leeds United 62%, draw 19%, Plymouth Argyle 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leeds United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leeds United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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