Leicester City 3-0 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.91
2-3 Goals
44%
1.82
4-5 Goals
19%
3.12
6+ Goals
10%
10.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.91 — our 27% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.37
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.65
X/1
18%
4.27
X/2
7%
8.31
X/X
15%
5.27
2/1
6%
22.15
2/2
12%
5.97
2/X
5%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.5pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.4pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leicester City EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 28%
+35% / +35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.99/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.50
+22% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +24%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
367 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 73%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
15.2 Crosses 26.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leicester City
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Birmingham
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.54 xG 0.45
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
583 Passes 228
87% Pass Accuracy 69%
33 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 0
18.12.2023 Birmingham Birmingham 2-3 HT 1-2 Leicester City Leicester City İNCL
04.03.2020 Leicester City Leicester City 1-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham FAK
01.08.2015 Birmingham Birmingham 2-3 HT 2-0 Leicester City Leicester City HAZ
28.01.2014 Birmingham Birmingham 1-2 HT 0-1 Leicester City Leicester City İNCL
24.08.2013 Leicester City Leicester City 3-2 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
12.04.2013 Leicester City Leicester City 2-2 HT 1-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leicester City
3-0
AWAY Birmingham
1.09 xG 1.44
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
402 Passes 294
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leicester City vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leicester City ran out comfortable winners over Birmingham 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Leicester City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Leicester City had 56% of the ball to Birmingham's 44%, shots finished 10-19, expected goals 1.09 to 1.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leicester City had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Leicester City and 1.50 for Birmingham.

What was the final score of Leicester City vs Birmingham?

Leicester City 3-0 Birmingham in the England - FA Cup on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leicester City vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leicester City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Leicester City 46%, draw 27%, Birmingham 26%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leicester City), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leicester City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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