Everton 1-2 Luton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 27 Jan 2024

Everton
1-2 HT 0-1
Luton Town
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Everton vs Luton Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.07
Over 2.5
58%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.82
No
44%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.9
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
26%
3.13
6+ Goals
14%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.88
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
16.6
X/1
18%
3.69
X/2
13%
11.7
X/X
11%
5.91
2/1
9%
21.75
2/2
9%
9.08
2/X
8%
17.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-11.6pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.8pp
26%
Away Win
17%
+9.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.8pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Everton v Luton Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Everton EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Luton Town EU Bookmakers 20%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.86/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.38/3.28
-14% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -65% / -37%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
463 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 222 · 70%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
25.0 Crosses 16.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Everton vs Luton Town Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Everton
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Luton Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.90 xG 0.89
68% Ball Possession 32%
21 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
459 Passes 146
80% Pass Accuracy 53%
36 Box Touches 17
32 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Everton Everton 1-2 HT 1-2 Luton Town Luton Town İNP
31.10.2007 Luton Town Luton Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Everton Everton İNLK
24.10.2006 Everton Everton 4-0 HT 2-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNLK

Everton 1-2 Luton Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Everton
1-2
AWAY Luton Town
0.99 xG 1.40
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
230 Passes 290
68% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Everton vs Luton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luton Town edged past Everton 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Everton at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Everton had 46% of the ball to Luton Town's 54%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 0.99 to 1.40.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Everton and 0.67 for Luton Town.

What was the final score of Everton vs Luton Town?

Everton 1-2 Luton Town in the England - FA Cup on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Everton vs Luton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Everton win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Everton 50%, draw 24%, Luton Town 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Everton) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Everton) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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