Southampton 3-0 Watford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 6 Feb 2024

📅06/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.43
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.38
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.43 — our 27% vs market 17.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.2
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.85
X/1
14%
4.2
X/2
11%
8.94
X/X
8%
5.71
2/1
8%
20.8
2/2
8%
6.22
2/X
12%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.9pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southampton EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Watford EU Bookmakers 26%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
1.47/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/2.21
-19% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / -27%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
397 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 73%
38.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
24.6 Crosses 17.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southampton
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Watford
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.36 xG 0.89
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
439 Passes 230
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.01.2024 Watford Watford 1-1 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton FAK
09.12.2023 Watford Watford 1-1 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNCL
13.03.2022 Southampton Southampton 1-2 HT 1-2 Watford Watford İNP
30.10.2021 Watford Watford 0-1 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
28.06.2020 Watford Watford 1-3 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
30.11.2019 Southampton Southampton 2-1 HT 0-1 Watford Watford İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southampton
3-0
AWAY Watford
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Southampton vs Watford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southampton swept aside Watford 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Southampton as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Southampton had 65% of the ball to Watford's 35%, shots finished 16-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Southampton had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Southampton and 1.00 for Watford.

What was the final score of Southampton vs Watford?

Southampton 3-0 Watford in the England - FA Cup on 06/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southampton vs Watford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Southampton 49%, draw 26%, Watford 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Southampton), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Southampton) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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