ThespaKusatsu Gunma 4-1 Sagamihara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 6 Mar 2024

📅06/03/2024 · 🕒13:03 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.56
Over 2.5
51%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.03
No
47%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
8%
X/X
19%
2/1
13%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
44%
+1.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-1.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
60%
-11.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
40%
+11.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
45%
+7.7pp
47%
BTTS No
55%
-7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagamihara EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
345 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Sagamihara
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.11.2021 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-1 HT 0-0 Sagamihara Sagamihara JAP2
07.03.2021 Sagamihara Sagamihara 0-0 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
4-1
AWAY Sagamihara
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Sagamihara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ThespaKusatsu Gunma cruised past Sagamihara 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had ThespaKusatsu Gunma as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, ThespaKusatsu Gunma had 48% of the ball to Sagamihara's 52%, shots finished 11-18.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for ThespaKusatsu Gunma and 0.50 for Sagamihara.

What was the final score of ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Sagamihara?

ThespaKusatsu Gunma 4-1 Sagamihara in the Japan - League Cup on 06/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Sagamihara?

Before kick-off our model rated a ThespaKusatsu Gunma win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split ThespaKusatsu Gunma 46%, draw 28%, Sagamihara 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ThespaKusatsu Gunma), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (ThespaKusatsu Gunma) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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