Nova Iguaçu 0-3 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 6 Mar 2025

📅06/03/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
5.09
Draw
21%
3.35
Away
48%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.52
Over 2.5
41%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.44
No
57%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
28%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
17%
+14.4pp
20%
Draw
26%
-6.0pp
48%
Away Win
57%
-8.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
37%
+5.9pp
57%
BTTS No
63%
-5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nova Iguaçu EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 61%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/0.61
+36% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / +34%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
270 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
Crosses 14.9
5.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nova Iguaçu
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 2.40
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2024 Nova Iguaçu Nova Iguaçu 2-0 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRC1
08.02.2023 Nova Iguaçu Nova Iguaçu 0-2 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRC1
03.02.2022 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 3-2 HT 1-0 Nova Iguaçu Nova Iguaçu BRC1
14.03.2021 Nova Iguaçu Nova Iguaçu 2-2 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRC1
15.03.2015 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 5-1 HT 4-1 Nova Iguaçu Nova Iguaçu BRC1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nova Iguaçu
0-3
AWAY Vasco da Gama
0.21 xG 1.99
34% Ball Possession 66%
4 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
251 Passes 570
84% Pass Accuracy 92%
7 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Nova Iguaçu vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama ran out comfortable winners over Nova Iguaçu 3-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vasco da Gama as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Nova Iguaçu had 34% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 66%, shots finished 4-16, expected goals 0.21 to 1.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Vasco da Gama led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Nova Iguaçu and 2.40 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Nova Iguaçu vs Vasco da Gama?

Nova Iguaçu 0-3 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Cup on 06/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nova Iguaçu vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Nova Iguaçu 31%, draw 20%, Vasco da Gama 48%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vasco da Gama), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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