PEC Zwolle 2-1 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.89
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.16
6+ Goals
14%
10.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.56
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
12%
4.56
X/2
10%
7.84
X/X
14%
5.02
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
10%
5.51
2/X
5%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-0.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.0pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 29%
-8% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -11%
1.32/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/2.08
-35% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -38%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
367 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 76%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
22.0 Crosses 15.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PEC Zwolle
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Excelsior
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.34 xG 1.02
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
415 Passes 270
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 2-4 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
15.12.2020 Excelsior Excelsior 2-0 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOK
17.03.2019 Excelsior Excelsior 0-2 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
06.10.2018 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-0 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
14.07.2018 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 5-0 HT 4-0 Excelsior Excelsior HAZ
14.04.2018 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-1 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PEC Zwolle
2-1
AWAY Excelsior
3.20 xG 1.44
53% Ball Possession 47%
25 Total Shots 8
11 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 5
312 Passes 264
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
44 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PEC Zwolle edged past Excelsior 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had PEC Zwolle as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, PEC Zwolle had 53% of the ball to Excelsior's 47%, shots finished 25-8, expected goals 3.20 to 1.44 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold PEC Zwolle's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PEC Zwolle had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.83 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?

PEC Zwolle 2-1 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a PEC Zwolle win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split PEC Zwolle 48%, draw 25%, Excelsior 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PEC Zwolle), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PEC Zwolle) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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