PSV Eindhoven 5-1 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 6 Apr 2024

PSV Eindhoven
5-1 HT 2-0
AZ Alkmaar
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.43
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.38
Over 2.5
58%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.12
2-3 Goals
40%
1.96
4-5 Goals
25%
2.74
6+ Goals
15%
7.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.71
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.6
X/1
19%
3.75
X/2
9%
14.0
X/X
9%
7.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
20.35
2/2
6%
10.1
2/X
5%
18.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.35 — our 12% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
66%
-5.8pp
20%
Draw
20%
+0.2pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.6pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSV Eindhoven v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 18%
+6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +10%
1.87/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.66
+21% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +49%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
433 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 77%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.3
18.9 Crosses 8.9
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
3W-0D-3L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.60 xG 0.80
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
419 Passes 375
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.12.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0-4 HT 0-3 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
28.05.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 0-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
12.11.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 0-1 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
05.02.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 1-2 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
11.09.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0-3 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
21.03.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-0 HT 1-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL

PSV Eindhoven 5-1 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
5-1
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
3.29 xG 1.36
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
461 Passes 282
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
37 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven swept aside AZ Alkmaar 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 59% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 41%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 3.29 to 1.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.00 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?

PSV Eindhoven 5-1 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 60%, draw 20%, AZ Alkmaar 20%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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